Anecdotes like Mr. Geismann’s, nevertheless, aren’t simple to interpret. Maybe Schuchart and corporations like it could have discovered one other solution to make ends meet, or would have rehired staff rapidly as soon as building tasks resumed.
Economists have tried to reply that query utilizing information. Mr. Autor in contrast firms with just below 500 workers — which might qualify for this system’s authentic model — with these simply above that measurement, which couldn’t. If the loans have been an enormous assist, then the smaller firms ought to have retained many extra of their staff. As a substitute, Mr. Autor discovered little distinction between the 2 teams.
However some economists argue that such analysis understates this system’s impression as a result of it fails to concentrate on the smallest companies, which have been much less prone to have giant money reserves or different financing.
One paper, based mostly on a survey of companies in Oakland, Calif., discovered that these receiving P.P.P. loans have been 20.5 % extra prone to say they anticipated to outlive six months — however that the comparatively larger optimism was restricted to companies with fewer than 5 workers.
Robert Bartlett, one of many Oakland research’s authors, mentioned economists like Mr. Autor is perhaps proper that P.P.P. saved fewer jobs than hoped. “However for these small companies, I believe it helped them preserve their doorways open,” he mentioned. “I’m satisfied of that.” A lot of these companies, he famous, are in poor neighborhoods or are owned by racial or ethnic minorities.
Daniel G. Guerra Jr. based AltusLearn, which gives coaching and compliance programs to medical staff, in 2013. By final yr the corporate, based mostly in Madison, Wis., had six workers and was on observe for a yr of serious development.
As a substitute, when the pandemic started, medical facilities halted just about all nonurgent care and canceled coaching.